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Monday 1 April 2013

Do Arsenal deserve to be in the top four?

Just the four goals against Reading this time, Arsenal? You clearly aren't trying hard enough...

Saturday saw a convincing win for Arsenal against this season's whipping boys Reading, who had already been on the receiving end of a 5-2 and a 7-5 scoreline against the Gunners earlier in the campaign. It was by all accounts a one-sided affair, with Arsenal again dominating possession and chances created. Whilst a three-goal margin is a resounding victory on any occasion, Arsenal could and should have put more goals past bottom-of-the-table Reading, the one team in the league who are almost unanimously tipped for relegation.

Against the team with statistically the worst defence in the Premier League, Arsenal might have been expected to convert more of their twenty-three shots on goal. They should also rue the fact that the opposition were able to spoil their clean sheet, despite only managing four attempts on goal all game. Reading's one in four conversion rate tops Arsenal's one in six, making Reading the more clinical side in this encounter.

It is not difficult to imagine that against most other Premier League defences, Arsenal's attackers would not have been allowed such an easy ride. Gervinho, praised by many after having a hand in all but one of the goals was still guilty of dithering on the ball in the build-up to all three and against more adept defenders would have found it much more difficult to produce (his and Arsenal's holy grail) the end product.

I do not mean to be too harsh on the Ivorian; a goal is a goal no matter who the opposition. But at the top of the top level (a position we Arsenal fans still believe our team to be clinging on to), you need to be able to perform against the top teams. Just ask that other tenacious Ivorian Didier Drogba. Gervinho is not the only member of the Arsenal team yet to prove he is capable of this.

One of the things that has been most humiliating for Arsenal this season (one which has included losses to Bradford and Blackburn - as if you'd forgotten) has been their form against the 'big' teams. Of those defeated by Arsenal this season, Bayern Munich are the one side I would consider as being within this category, though even that game was a hollow victory as it only confirmed another trophy-less campaign.

The table below illustrates just how dire Arsenal's results against the best teams in the country have been this time around. It shows how many points each Premier League team has gained so far this season in their fixtures against Manchester United, Manchester City and Chelsea. The brackets show the maximum points each team could have earned from these games.





Team

Points gained against the 'big three'

=1
Everton
7   (/15)
=1
Southampton
7   (/18)
  2
QPR
5   (/18)
=3
Tottenham
4   (/12)
=3
West Ham
4   (/12)
=4
Liverpool
3   (/15)
=4
Newcastle
3   (/18)
=4
Norwich
3   (/15)
=4
Sunderland
3   (/15)
=4
West Brom
3   (/15)
  5
Swansea
2     (/9)
=6
Arsenal
1   (/15)
=6
Fulham
1   (/15)
=6
Reading
1   (/15)
=6
Stoke
1   (/15)
=7
Aston Villa
0   (/12)
=7
Wigan
0   (/15)


Aside from the surprise of seeing Southampton and QPR both in the top three, the next most noticeable anomaly is Arsenal's embarrassingly low position in the table. The fact that only Aston Villa and Wigan have won fewer points against the 'big three' is poignant testimony to Arsenal's below-par performances when faced with tougher opposition.

The argument could be made that Everton, Tottenham and Liverpool would be more deserving of a Champions League spot than Arsenal, as they have all demonstrated their ability to compete against the best teams in England - something Arsenal have failed to do. Would one of theses teams be more hungry for success in Europe than the Gunners?

Out of this season's remaining eight fixtures, undoubtedly the biggest game is at home to Manchester United at the end of this month: Arsenal's last chance to land a blow on one of the teams trying to push them further away from the top of the English game.

Arsène Wenger needs to look at his team's record against their rivals this season and act to make sure that the club does not allow these big fixtures to become forgone conclusions. Finishing inside the top four this year would be a lot more justifiable, not to mention easier if Arsenal had managed to take a few points off the other contenders.

4 comments:

  1. If Arsenal finish in the top 4 they deserve to be there.....everything else is a ridiculous argument.
    Like your opening statement...." Just the four goals against Reading this time, Arsenal? You clearly aren't trying hard enough..."

    Arsenal have the biggest wins over Reading all season. Man U lost 3-4 and won 1-0 a week ago, Man City won 1-0 while Chelsea drew 2-2. The fact that Arsenal play teams in the main, lower in the table in the run in mean they have already played the higher teams and this is reflected in their position on the table. 3rd is a distinct possibility and if they acheive it there will be no miracle...just Arsenal getting more points than teams 4,5 & 6!

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  2. Thanks for the comment Steve,

    I agree that if Arsenal do finish in the top four they will have pulled off quite a feat and be deserving of much credit. However, to do this they need to have an extremely strong finish as well as hoping that the teams around them slip up. If Arsenal get nothing from their game to come against Manchester United and Chelsea and Tottenham draw against each other and beat United and City respectively, the top four could be out of reach for the Gunners. My argument is that if this is the case, Arsenal will have to look at their failure to beat or even draw against any of the big teams as a cause of this.

    The opening line of the post was meant to be sarcastic, in mockery of my tendency to pick faults with Arsenal's performance despite a 4-1 win. The victories over Reading this season are something to be proud of (though Man United did actually win their game against them 4-3, not the other way around) but they need to beat the bigger teams to in order to compete with them for places.

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  4. Thanks mate I will check out your site

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